FIDES (VIETNAM) Market Statistics 08/05 – 12/05/2023

Market Summary
	Change	Trading Volume	Trading Value	Foreign net buy/sell
	(%)	Average daily trading volume (mil.shares)	Average daily trading value (mil.USD)	Net trading value (mil.USD)
HSX	1.69%	664.42	463.21	(6.08)
VN30	1.43%	150.46	153.22	5.86
HNX	3.67%	115.83	67.72	(0.18)
Upcom	2.93%	49.69	24.03	(0.75)

Source: Fiinpro

Sector Performance (HOSE + HNX, %)

Source: Fiinpro

Foreign Top buy/sell (HOSE + HNX, mil.USD)

Source: Fiinpro

News

Economy- Society

Vietnam GDP 2023

• Standard Chartered Bank revises down Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 6.5% in 2023 from the previous 7.2% and got more cautious on the external front. The bank forecasts the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will make another 50-basis point cut in the refinancing rate to 5% by the end of the second quarter, followed by rates on hold until the end of 2025. However, Standard Chartered sees upside risk to the rate forecast, especially towards this year-end, as the SBV may focus more on financial stability than growth.
• On the other hand, HSBC also downgraded their forecasts for Vietnamese economy from 5.8% (in Jan 2023) to 5.2%. HSBC expects that the services sector and the recovery in foreign trade in 2H2023 will be the main GDP driver for 2023.

Vietnam’s FX reserves

• Moody’s expects Vietnam’s foreign reserves to reach $95 bn by end-2023 (from $91 bn in 2022) thanks to: (1) recent VND appreciation; (2) international tourism recovery; and (3) steady FDI inflows.
• Moody’s believes a stronger VND would likely mitigate the impact of higher import and manufacturing input costs on domestic inflation, while allowing the SBV room to pursue further accommodative monetary policy.

Public Investment

• According to The Ministry of Finance (MoF), 4M2023 public disbursement reached $4.71 bn, completing 14.66% target year (lower than 18.48% of 4M2022) and 15.65% of the Prime Minister’s plan.

Company- Sectors

MSCI

• In the review in May 2023, MSCI decided to add 3 stocks to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index portfolio and exclude 1 stock. All are foreign stocks while the list of Vietnamese stocks is kept unchanged. As of 28 Apr 2023, Vietnam still accounted for the largest proportion in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index but the weight has decreased significantly from 29.24% at the end of Jan to 26.26%. The top 10 largest proportions in the portfolio of the MSCI Frontier Market Index have many Vietnamese stocks such as HPG (3.61%), VHM (3.15%), VNM (3%), VIC (2.91%) and VCB (2.51%).
• For MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Index: inclusion of VSH, exclusion of HNG.

Fund flow

• China Trust Vietnam Opportunity Fund (Taiwan) was approved its fifth fund raising of NT$5 bn (equivalent to $160 mn) from 8 May 2023, raising their total AUM to NT$16.5 bn (equivalent to $537.9 mn).

Corporate bond market in 4 months 2023

• In Apr 2023, there was 1 issuance under privately placement worth $28.55 mn (North Star Holdings JSC) and 01 issuance under public offering worth $85.11 mn (MSN-Masan Group Corp).  
• The total corporate bond issuance value in 4 months 2023 decreased by 59% yoy ($1.35 bn), of which corporate bonds issued via private placements decreased by 62% yoy ($1.1 bn) and public offerings decreased by 37% yoy ($234 mn).
• Since the beginning of the year, corporate bonds issuers have redeemed early $2.1 bn (+48% yoy). VBMA said that $911 mn corporate bonds will mature in May 2023. (Source: VBMA- Vietnam Bond Market Association)

Brokerage

• There were 22,638 new retail accounts opened in Apr 2023 (-90.19% yoy and -42.58% mom). This number is the record low since Mar 2020.

Banking sector

• Credit growth as of 27 Apr 2023 is 3.05% ytd. The SBV announced to strictly inspect the transfer of stakes in commercial banks to prevent over lending between related parties.
• The SBV Governor is considering a policy rate cut to support the economy. The market has been expecting a 50bps cut recently.

Electricity sector

• From 4 May 2023, the average retail price of electricity is 1,920.3 VND/kWh (excluding value added tax). This adjustment is equivalent to an increase of 3% compared to the current average retail electricity price. (Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade)

Insurance sector

• 4M2023, direct written premium reaches $3.21 bn (+1.12% yoy). In which, non-life insurance makes up $992.08 mn (+2.55% yoy) and life insurance accounted for $2.22 bn (+0.5% yoy). Claim and payout ratio of non-life and life insurance are 31.8% and 30.94%, respectively. (Source: Ministry of Finance)

Tourism sector

• In April 2023, Vietnam welcomed about 984,816 international tourists (+9.7x yoy and +9.9% mom), the highest figure from the beginning of this year. The number of Chinese tourists to Vietnam in Apr was 112,000, up 61.5% mom thanks to China’s border reopening to group tours from 15 Mar 2023. In 4 months of 2023, Vietnam welcomed about 3.68 million international tourists (+19.1x yoy). Of which, Korea remains Viet Nam’s biggest tourism market with 1.07 million visitors, followed by the United States with 263,000 and China with 252,000 travelers.
• For domestic visitors, the tourism sector served 10,500 domestic visitors (same vs Apr 2022) and 4 months of 2023 reached 10.5 million (+3.8% yoy)

HPG (Hoa Phat Group JSC)

• In Apr 2023, construction steel sales volume reached 214,000 tons (-28% yoy) and HRC volume reached 239,000 tons (-6.5% yoy). Steel pipe and steel sheet volume reached 49,000 tonnes (+12.3% yoy) and 32.800 tonnes (+6.5% yoy), respectively.
• 4M2023: construction steel sales volume reached 1.08 million tons (-34% yoy) and HRC reached 721.000 tons (-29% yoy). In addition, HPG sold 209,000 tons of steel pipes (-20% yoy) and 102,000 tons of steel sheet (-25%).
• On 10 May 2023, the second construction steel price cut in May with 200VND/kg for wire rod (-1.3%) and 100VND/kg for rebar (-0.7%). This is also the 6th consecutive time of price cutting since beg-April until now with 7.2% and 3.8% decreases for wire-rod and rebar respectively. The main reason is due to weak demand.
• HPG plans to invest in 4 projects in Nam Phu Yen Economic Zone (Phu Yen province) with a total investment of up to $5.1 bn, including: (1) Infrastructure project at Hoa Tam industrial park, (2) Bai Goc port project, (3) Hoa Phat Iron and Steel Complex in Hoa Tam industrial park, (4) Commercial – Service Zone project. (Source: HPG)

POW (PetroVietnam Power Corp.)

• In Apr 2023, electricity sales volume reached 1.37 billion kWh ( -4.3% mom, -3.0% yoy) and revenue of $111.9 mn (-6.7% mom, -6.9% yoy).
• 4M2022, electricity sales volume reached 5.37 billion kWh (+5.9% yoy) and revenue of $443.45 mn (+4.8% yoy).
• For May 2023, POW sets a target of electricity output of 1,48 billion kWh (+7.89% mom, +30.59% yoy) and expected revenue of $120.47 mn (+7.68% mom, +16.36% yoy). (Source: POW)

HVN (Vietnam Airlines JSC)

• HoSE changed shares of HVN from warning status to supervision status on 12 May 2023 because Vietnam Airlines was late in submitting its audited financial statements for 2022 by more than 30 days. (Source: HSX)

LHG (Long Hau Corporation)

• HoSE lifted LHG out of supervision status from 10 May 2023. LHG disclosed the 2022 audited financial statements on time. (Source: HSX)

VHC (Vinh Hoan Corporation)

• VHC approved to issue around 3.7 million ESOP shares (2% OS) at VND10,000/share. Lock up: 5 years. Implementation time: in Q2/2023, after approval of SSC. (Source: VHC)

NVL (No Va Land Investment Group Corporation)

• Novagroup registered to sell 69,618,482 NVL shares via order matching/put through from 10 May to 8 Jun 2023, decreasing their ownership from 28.466% to 24.896% (485,498,849 shares). (Source: HSX)

BCG (Bamboo Capital Group JSC)

• Mr. Nguyen The Tai (CEO) registered to sell 6 million BCG shares via matching and put through from 15 May to 13 Jun 2023, decreasing his ownership from 2.85% to 1.73% (9,221,114 shares). (Source: HSX)

PPC (Pha Lai Thermal Power JSC)

• REE Energy Co., Ltd., (a major shareholder) registered to sell 3.2 million PPC shares via put-through/order matching from 11 May to 8 Jun 2023, decreasing its ownership from 24.14% to 23.14% (74,196,260 shares). (Source: HSX).

STB (Sai Gon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank)  

• Dragon Capital bought 1 million STB shares on 28 Apr 2023, increasing their ownership from 5.973% to 6.026% (113,599,000 shares). (Source: HSX)